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Prediction for CME (2013-09-29T22:40:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2013-09-29T22:40Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/3302/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2013-10-02T01:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2013-10-02T06:15Z (-10.0h, +10.0h)
Prediction Method: STOA
Prediction Method Note:

On Oct 1, 2013, at 4:16 PM, Murray Dryer wrote:
There was no metric radio Type II report, so I guessed Vs = 1000 km/s based on Kevin Schenk's Vcme = 896.7 km/s estimate from LASCO and 1097 km/s estimate from STEREO B as a guide for STOA's initial input shock speed ahead of the CME. 
 
STOA's shock arrival at Earth predicted: 02 October 2013, 0615 UT +/-10 hr. ["US Gov't. shutdown+1 day" event]
Caveat: This blast wave theory-based model is empirical 2D with no consideration of azimuthal variations. Also the uncertainty mentioned above is based on published real time studies in Cycle 23.
 
I hope that Chin-Chun Wu and Yihua Zheng at NRL and NASA are not furloughed (!) and can run H3DMHD and ENLIL 3D codes!
 
Murray

Lead Time: 5.07 hour(s)
Difference: -4.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2013-10-01T20:16Z

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